The yield curve inverted in June 2022, and as we all know, the recession never came. When it flipped positive in 2024, ...

Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

As of early March 2025, investors—and consumers—have once again begun to feel skittish about the possibility of an impending ...

Analysts and investors began to brace for a souring economic environment as the 10-year Treasury yield fell below that of a 3 ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted, a ...

In last week's commentary we spoke about the big bounce of the S&P 500 (SPY) that got us back in the mix of all the key trend lines (50/100/200 day moving averages). And likely we would be stuck in a ...

An inverted rate yield curve – that is, a long-term interest rate that falls to or below the short-term interest rate – seems to have a track record of predicting recessions. The question of leading ...

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