A new working paper from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve’s (Federal Reserve) Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) provides the most rigorous empirical validation to date of ...
Research is casting prediction markets as policy-relevant forecasting tools just as state regulators escalate efforts to ...
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Kalshi may be more useful than some traditional economic forecasting methods, Fed researchers find
The Fed paper found that Kalshi's markets provide data that's "valuable to both researchers and policymakers." ...
Why expert predictions often fail—and why forecasting is the wrong way to judge what real expertise actually delivers.
Sea level can temporarily change for a variety of reasons—atmospheric pressure shifts and water accumulation from wind and ...
In the evolving ecosystem of prediction markets, Kalshi Inc. has quickly emerged as a significant force, recently highlighting research that positions its platform as a potentially superior tool for ...
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